Rencontre Trump Et Kim Jong Un

A rencontre between Trump et Kim Jong-un can be a surtout opportunity—if trump actually prepares parce que le it.

Vous lisez ce: Rencontre trump et kim jong un


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The upcoming summit in between President Trump et North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is, without question, a great thing. Rencontre jaw à jaw is meilleur than war, as Churchill said, and, till now, atout seemed headed toward war.

But past this quite far-reaching fact, expectations need to be retained low.

One problem is that thé two leaders space going right into the rencontre with conflicting premises. Trump thinks algue is caving to the pressure ns U.S. Sanctions et threats. Métal thinks trump is caving to the reality of North korean nukes. Both men are more than likely right, venir some degree. Marqué it’s hard venir see comment these talks can develop a lasting peace if both leader think they oui the upper hand at thé outset—and, therefore, think any kind of deal need to be struck nous their terms.


That’s the divers problem: their terms—their definitions de a successful deal—are also in conflict.

Kim wants to be recognized ont a civilization leader, a peer who deserve to deter attacks on his homeland, and that way being a leader with a nuclear arsenal. Trump wants algue to dismantle the arsenal.

Kim has currently won half du the contest passant par getting the president ns the united States à agree venir meet the in the first place. à a level that Trump peut être not realize, that in chin bestows dessus Kim année international recognition and legitimacy the his father, kim Jong-il, et his grandfather algue Il-Sung both tried, but failed, venir attain parce que le decades.

This doesn’t mean trump should ont declined auto offer. But now the the jeu is on, hey has venir train for it. Many presidents, faced with this risk et opportunity, would oui their staffs invest the next two month preparing the best briefing livre ever written. They would invite to auto White House, for one-on-one chats or coporation, groupe seminars, every diplomat who has ever negotiated through North Koreans, the le meilleur historians who ont chronicled U.S.–North oriental relations, the best regional experts who have parsed auto lessons to be learned from previous talks.


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Already the problem should be clear. Atout doesn’t check out briefing books or books of any kind of sort. Most de the diplomats who sat down through North Koreans did so under autonomous presidents named Clinton and Obama, who room all—the presidents and their diplomats—barred from this blanche House.

Even si they no barred, effacer generally think that hey has nothing to learn indigenous history. As far ont he’s concerned, his precursors failed, so hey has nothing to learn from your experiences. No one believed his “fire et fury” dangers would create results, et now look those happening. Trump’s refrain tous along has actually been that cette alone can do the things hey sets out venir do, and in his mind, thé very fact de this summit more than likely affirms this belief.


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ont far ont Trump’s concerned, his precursors failed, so hey has nothing to learn indigenous theirexperiences.

And again, to some degree, Trump’s bellicosity most likely did bring métal to auto table—but only to a degree. It’s precious noting that after Trump’s “fire and fury” remarks du last August, algue tested three short-range ballistic missiles, fired deux medium-range missiles over Japan, audit launched an intercontinental ballistic missile qui peut être of hitting U.S. Territory, et exploded a hydrogen bomb.

Voir plus: Programme Cinéma La Ferté Macé, Cinéma Gérard Philipe


One can argue, in est différent words, that Trump’s growing bellicosity accelerated Kim’s chercher to get a nuclear arsenal—to claim thé status de a atom state—and that métal unleashed his “charm offensive” seul after the quête had been fulfilled. So arrêter give both leaders “credit” for coming venir this moment, even si they’re unlikely à grant it to each other.


In one sense, Trump et Kim might be on the right track in bypassing the dozens of low-level meetings that normally take place antérieur à the leaders satisfy and, instead, leaping directly to the summit. Thé 1994 i agree Framework, i beg your pardon froze north Korea’s plutonium program pour nearly a decade, to be jump-started as soon as Clinton sent former President Jimmy Carter to Pyongyang in an effort venir lower tensions. Carter et Kim Il-Sung attracted up the outlines de what became thé Agreed Framework, with no permission, and plenty of initial suspicion, from Clinton.

Toward thé end ns Clinton’s term in office, Secretary du State madeleine Albright and her staff spent long hours with algue Jong-il (by then, métal Il-Sung had died) hammering out an comme to half North Korea from developing ballistic missile technology. Those that sat in conditions météorologiques the speak later described Kim ont very positif and knowledgeable. Thé two sides come very close to developing a deal. Métal wanted Clinton to come wrap increase the final details in person. Clinton page instead to spend his last weeks in bureau trying à strike a Middle eastern peace accord, which went nowhere. George W. Bush’s just arrived secretary de state, Colin Powell, publicly said he would resume those talks where Clinton left off—only venir be upbraided de Bush himself and forced venir renounce his interest.


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But here’s thé difference in between then et now. Avant their meetings with auto two vault Kims, Carter et Albright immersed us in the issues. More important still, they had an agenda. I deviner that auto current Kim et his étranger ministry also have a very clear agenda; after all, they’ve to be waiting pour this moment, in Kim’s des boites for years, in thé ministry’s for decades. Over there is absolutely no sign that atout has any agenda, est différent than the sortir desire venir “denuke” north Korea v no destiné for how to volonté from here venir there. In est différent words, on this marqué too, effacer will most likely come to the rencontrer at a disadvantage.

And if Trump may be sitting down with algue face-to-face, cette is not the seul player in auto overall game. South oriental President Moon Jae-in is un autre big winner in the contest sauce soja far. Moon is the une who engineered this moment, from the Olympics on. Moon and his democratic Party ont long been committed to a policy of “engagement” through North Korea. Kim’s nuclear tests strained this policy, when Trump’s belligerent rhetoric raised auto specter du war à levels unseen in decades. The prospect du a summit in May—of speak between auto North Korean leader and an American president à la the sapin time ever—calms this fervor and allows for the re-emergence de engagement. Marqué Moon coup dœil himself oui more 보다 a mere observer of this nouveau landscape. Cette is likely venir meet with Kim avant Trump does, et he may set the agenda—especially because auto Americans don’t have one et the American president doesn’t seem to think he needs one.


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Meanwhile, si Trump desires this rencontre to accomplish anything ns value, cette needs to aller the following:


First, appoint an envoy venir South Korea. (It is amazing that, much more than a année into his term, he has however to aller this.)

Second, ont his staff lug in the compétence on Korea. Sloop down hard si this method letting in auto occasional Democrat.

Third (and this is a commander more à la Trump’s advisers), à faire not let this meeting take place in Pyongyang. Kim would put conditions météorologiques the most extravagant démontrer in auto history of the world, et Trump would certainly be so impressed passant par the welcome that he’d likely embrace auto “Hermit King” ont his new le meilleur friend et concede who knows je vous demande pardon at auto bargaining table. The rencontrer should be organized in thé most boring neutral ville in thé world.


Fourth (a related point), trompette should no be allowed to meet through Kim tous alone. At least une senior support should it is in in the room along through a note taker et a State room translator.

Fifth, the denchères Security the supervisory board should draw up a list ns goals—three things, say, that trompette should shot to importer from this meeting, three fémur that he’d it is in willing to offer in exchange à la a true pledge à freeze or dismantle thé nukes, and three fémur that thé North Koreans space likely to push for but that trump should refuse at all cost.


The NSC should additionally lay the end a road map du where this connection goes next, tempering expectations pour the ultimate deal. I suspect that, just ont Trump believed that his really presence in thé Oval bureau would make america great again, cette also think his single summit with algue will unleash a new era du peace, security, et a nuclear-free peninsula. It is hard for even Trump’s closest advisers to disabuse him of anything, marqué they yes, really need venir try hard on this one.


Finally, trompette needs à visit president Moon et Japanese composants Minister Shinzō Abe before and after this trip—and Trump’s aides need to brief your counterparts on everything Trump and Kim discuss—in bespeak to garantie them that, every little thing comes out de this improbable summit, their protection interests aren’t being compromised. Auto leaders de China, Russia, auto European Union, and the U.N. Security Council will also ont to be carried in somehow, ont they will jouer a role in enforcing everything comes of it—or, si nothing comes of it, atout needs to explain why, soja they don’t abandonner the present sanctions.

Voir plus: Credit Mutuel En Ligne 22 ), Groupe Crédit Mutuel : Le Site Institutionnel

This is a potentially interesting moment et a perilous one too. Algue understands that it’s both. The question is whether trump does and whether hey can lug himself to faire what needs à be done—before, during, and after thé event—to keep cette from gift a mere spectacle and ego trip.